The current housing market is booming which is good news but is it for buyers? Homebuyers are facing many obstacles in this seller's market. In fact, it is one of the most competitive markets we have seen for homebuyers recently. According to the National Association of Realtors (NAR), homes that are for sale are getting around 4.8 offers per sale! This is due to the lack of inventory in the current housing market.
“The housing market is still relatively under-supplied, and buyers can’t buy what’s not for sale. Relative to what we saw in 2017 to 2019, March 2021 was still roughly 117,000 new listings lower, adding to the pre-existing early-year gap of more than 200,000 fresh listings that would typically have come to market in January or February. Despite this week’s gain from a year ago, we’re 19 percent below the new seller activity that we saw in the same week in 2019,” says Danielle Hale, Chief Economist at realtor.com.
Many are blaming the pandemic for lack of inventory because sellers are scared to have potential buyers in their homes but this is not the case. The main cause is the shortage of new construction of single-family homes. A chart which shows the completed single-family homes per decade shows a dramatic decrease from 2000-2009 to 2010-2019. From 2000 - 2009 12.6 million single-family homes were constructed and from 2010 - 2019 only 6.5 million single-family homes were constructed.
“Even before the COVID-19 pandemic and current recession, the housing market was facing a substantial supply shortage and that deficit has grown. In 2018, we estimated that there was a housing supply shortage of approximately 2.5 million units, meaning that the U.S. economy was about 2.5 million units below what was needed to match long-term demand. Using the same methodology, we estimate that the housing shortage increased to 3.8 million units by the end of 2020. A continued increase in a housing shortage is extremely unusual; typically in a recession, housing demand declines and supply rises, causing inventory to rise above the long-term trend,” says am Khater, Vice President and Chief Economist at Freddie Mac, Economic Housing and Research Division.
Freddie Mac estimates that close to four million homes will need to be built to meet the current demand. NAR reports that as of March 2021, there were 1.74 million housing starts which is the highest they have been in 14 years. This is an increase in both single-family and multifamily units. It will take around 4-8 months from start to completion on new construction so patience is needed.
If you are considering purchasing a home this year, you will definitely need some patience. A good idea is to contact your local real estate professional to help you navigate this demanding housing market.
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