Home Builders Are Confident in 2023

 CNN reported that January has seen an improvement in home builder confidence. In fact, it was the first uptick since it has been falling for the past year.

Construction prospects are improving and this is good news for homebuyers in the housing market. For the past several years potential buyers have been facing a battle due to low inventory. According to the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index, the current sales, buyer traffic, and the conditions for the sale of new construction homes are improving.

Even with spikes in construction costs, shortage in building materials, and harsh affordability conditions, builders are starting to look up. The National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index, which * is meant to gauge market conditions reported that builders’ confidence went up from December to January. December reported the lowest since 2012.

“It appears the low point for builder sentiment in this cycle was registered in December, even as many builders continue to use a variety of incentives, including price reductions, to bolster sales,” Konter said. “The rise in builder sentiment also means that cycle lows for permits and starts are likely near, and a rebound for home building could be underway later in 2023.”

“In the coming quarters, single-family home building will rise off of cycle lows as mortgage rates are expected to trend lower and boost housing affordability,” he said. “Improved housing affordability will increase housing demand, as the nation grapples with a structural housing deficit of 1.5 million units.”

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The End of 2021 Saw Gains For Private Residential Spending

 

The National Association of Homebuilders' Census Construction Spending reported that the total private residential construction spending jumped 1.1% at the end of 2021. In December 2021 spending was at an adjusted annual rate of $810.3 billion with a total that was 15% higher than in December 2020.

Single-family construction spending rose to a $435 billion annual pace which was up 2.1%. Multi-family constructions spending rose 0.4% but was hurt a little due to supply chain issues. In fact, home building is still facing supply chain issues and labor shortages.

Private non-residential spending stayed the same towards the end of 2021. December saw a rise from November 2021 which was 9.1% high than a year ago. The largest month-over-month nonresidential spending increase was made by the class of office ($0.49 billion), followed by amusement and recreation ($0.4 billion), and class of lodging ($0.37 billion).

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This Summer Saw a Gain in Single-Family Permit Gains

 

This summer saw a booming housing market. The year-over-year increase in single-family permits was 29.7% over July 2020. In July 2020 there were 525,623 single-family permits issued and in July 2021 there were 681,959 issued.

The uptick was also seen across the country in all four regions year-to-date in July 2021. The Northeast had the highest increase in single-family permits with 32.2%, followed by the south with a 30.4% increase, the West had a 29.8% and the Midwest came in the lowest bust till strong at 25.8%. AS for multifamily permits issued the West was the strongest at 29.8%, Northeast had a 25.6% increase, the South 18% and the Midwest with a 15.7%.

All 50 states and the District of Columbia had growth from July 2020 YTD and July 2021 YTD in single-family permits issued. The highest growth was in the District of Columbia with a 226.1% increase from 65 to 225. The highest 10 states made up 62.4% of the countries total.

Multifamily permits also saw an increase from 270,338 in July 2020 to 328,483 issued in July 2021 which was reported as a 21.5% increase. Thirty-eight states saw growth in multifamily permits while 12 states and the District of Columbia had a decline. New Mexico was the highest with a 295.8% increase from 427 to 1,690. Connecticut had the worst decline from 1,708 to 927 which was a 45.7% decrease. The top ten states totaled 63.2% of the multifamily permits issued.

Top Ten Metro Areas Issued Highest Number of  Single-Family Permits

Metropolitan Statistical Area	Single-family Permits: Jan (Units #YTD, NSA)
Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX	32,134
Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX	32,017
Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, AZ	22,420
Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell, GA	20,352
Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL	1,954
Austin-Round Rock, TX	15,427
Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia, NC-SC	11,493
Orland-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL	10,314
Jacksonville, FL	9,949
Nashville-Davidson–Murfreesboro–Franklin, TN	9,993

 

 

Top Ten Metro Areas Issued Highest Number of  Multifamily Permits

 

Metropolitan Statistical Area	Multifamily Permits: Jan (Units #YTD, NSA)
New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA	24.685
Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX	16,796
Austin-Round Rock, TX	16,170
Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA	12,565
Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA	10,573
Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD	10,307
Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach, FL	9,090
Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, AZ	9,055
Nashville-Davidson–Murfreesboro–Franklin, TN	8,412
Houston-TheWoodlands-Sugar Land, TX	8,348

 

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An Uptick in Home Building Construction Times During 2020

The 2020 Survey of Construction (SOC) revealed that it took 10 days less to finish a home from authorization to completion in 2020 than in 2019. The survey also shows that the average completion time of a single-family house is around 7.8 months, which usually includes a little over a month from authorization to start and another 6.8 months to finish the construction.  Good news for the housing market as inventory has been very low the past year.

Depending on the function of the new construction single-family homes the time it takes to complete varies. For a house built for sale, it took the shortest amount of time which was 6.9 months from permits to completion. A new construction home built by owners took around 13 months and a home built for rent took around 10.6 months. New construction homes built by a hired contractor only took 9.7 months from permits to completion.

Time also varies by region. The region with the longest time tied with Middle Atlantic and New England at 11.6 months while the shortest was the South Atlantic division with an average of 7.8 months. The remaining regions include the Pacific at 10 months and East South Central at 9.1 months.

Hopefully, with the shorter construction times, there will be more inventory for homebuyers. If you are in the market for a new home, choose a Realtor to help you with the process.

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Stucco and Vinyl Make the Top List for Exteriors on New Construction Homes

The Census Bureau released their Survey of Construction (SOC) and data shows that the most used exterior finished in 2020 for a new single-family home was stucco. The report revealed that 28% of new homes started in 2020 the principal exterior material was stucco, 26% used vinyl, 21% used Hardiplank or Hardiboard, 19% brick of veer brick, wood products 4% and rock or stone materials only 1%.

The Survey of Construction (SOC) is a great resource distributed by the United States Census Bureau. The purpose of the survey is to gather the data on the current statistics for both national and regional starts, completions and characteristics of new construction on single-family and multifamily housing units. The report also includes sales of new single-family houses.

Along the different regions in the county, there were big differences in what was mainly used on the exteriors of homes in certain regions. Vinyl siding was used most in 5 out of the 9 census divisions. The report shows that in Middle Atlantic and New England vinyl was used as the primary exterior on 76% of new homes started in 2020, in the East 68%, West North Central 53%, and in East South Central 45%. Stucco won out in the Pacific division with 63%, Mountain came in with 50% and South Atlantic used the material on 39% of new single-family homes started in 2020. Brick or brick veneer was used the most in South Central with 64% and the East with 39%.

If you are in the market for a home, now is a great time to buy. The historically low-interest rates are in the buyer's favor. Remember if you are considering purchasing a home, use a licensed sales agent who can help you through the process.

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The National Association of Home Builders' HBGI Find Surprising Results

 

The quarterly NAHB Home Building Geography Index (HBGI), released the first of this month, shows that home building throughout the country has increased in areas with the shortest commute times.  The HBGI also shows the suburban shift in new home construction to low density, low cost markets stemming largely from the COVID-19 pandemic and first reported in the second quarter of 2020 continued into 2021.

“The first quarter HBGI indicates that home building not only continued to overperform in lower cost markets like suburbs and exurbs, but also expanded the most rapidly for single-family and multifamily construction in areas with the shortest commutes,” said NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz. “As workplaces increasingly adopt hybrid work models for roughly 30-40% of the American workforce, renters and buyers will have increased market power to minimize travel times and reduce both housing and transportation cost burdens.”

Nationwide the average commute is around 26 minutes. For single-family homes, this quarter construction growth rose in areas with the shortest commuting times. The index data showed a four-quarter moving average year-over-year growth rates of 22.2%.

The study discovered that for single-family home building there was an 18% decrease from the first quarter of 2021 in the market share for large metro core counties. The data found an increase from 17.2% to 17.9% in outlying counties of large or small metro areas.

“With the shift to telework brought on by the COVID-19 pandemic, housing demand continued to show the strongest gains in lower density markets in the first quarter as people have flexibility to live further out and even outside some metro areas,” said NAHB Chairman Chuck Fowke. “Given the regulatory burdens and lack of lots in higher density, higher cost markets, builders are better able to meet demand in suburban, exurban and rural areas because of the lower cost to build.”

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Guidelines to Use When Purchasing a Home in a Seller’s Market

The housing market is hot right now as can be seen in all the statistics gathered from real estate professionals. Multiple offers and shortage of homes on the market along with low interest rates have driven the market to where it is today. This can make for a challenging situation for home buyers. Bidding wars could lead you, as a buyer, to purchase a home priced higher than the appraised value of the home, or you may even spend more than you can afford. One of the downfalls of the Recession is that homeowners ended up owing more than their home was worth – home buyers don’t want to repeat this trend.

In the market for a new single-family home but are a little apprehensive because of the low inventory, increased prices and bidding wars? Don’t be…here are some guidelines to use when purchasing a home in a seller’s market.

Recognize the Supply and Demand. If there are not many real estate listings, it can be difficult to find what you are looking for when your pickings are slim. When you do find what you are looking for, you can bet other buyers want the same thing which will only drive the price up. You do not want to purchase a home at a higher price when the price rise is determined by low inventory versus a strong economy. A strong economy can support a strong market.

Scout Out the Neighborhood. Are there any signs of new construction or have the housing starts increased? If so, this is a good sign that the local housing market is thriving. Remember, if the local economy is strong it can sustain a rising housing market. Research the market by noting the number of developed lots in the community and the amount of building permits that have been issued. The St. Tammany Parish Residential Permits office provides information regarding the amount of building permits that have been issued in the Greater New Orleans area. Speak to a Realtor in the neighborhood market in which you are interested. They can tell you if new home construction is strong in the neighborhood and how many lots are for sale in the area.

Sometimes Losing Can Be in Your Best Interest. Buyers who push to any limit to win the bidding war can overpay and loose in the long run. Go into the bid with your game shoes on…set a budget and think about getting a preapproval from a mortgage lender. When setting a budget, remember to compensate for living expenses and emergency funds. If the bidding war sets the price too high, walk away!

Do Not Let Your Guard Down. Use smart self-defense when purchasing a home. Many buyers who want to win the bid give up rights that are standard in sales contracts. Contingencies are there to protect the buyer. It is pretty risky to give these up to appease a seller into accepting your offer. Buyers can lose their deposit if they do not have a preapproved mortgage and have been denied a mortgage after they have a house under contract or the inspection comes back with costly repairs. Another way a buyer can lose cash is if an appraisal comes in low and the mortgage lender reduces the loan amount making the buyer put up the cash to compensate for the gap between the loan and purchase price. If you feel you have found the house for you, then determine if the risk of waiving any contingency clauses outweigh any hidden financial surprises you might find.

Now is still a good time to buy as mortgage rates are low. In St. Tammany Parish at Bedico Creek Preserve, we have many new homes for sale from which to choose, including new homes priced from the $230’s – $300’s in two exclusive Neighborhoods called Cypress Crossing and Deer Park. To find out more about our homes for sale, Contact our sales office at 985-845-4200 or E-mail Info@LiveBedico.com.

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