Monday, February 29, 2016

Post Recession Recovery in New Home Sales

The National Association of Home Builders projected approximately 511,000 new homes would be sold during 2015, and the new home sales numbers surpassed that prediction by a small landslide bringing in 544,000 new home sales on a seasonally adjusted basis in December, 2015.  This was welcome news for home builders showing a recovery in new home sales numbers.  The increase was a 10.8% increase year-over-year, and this also heralded the best year for new home sales since 2007, just before the housing market crash.  In the South region specifically, new home sales were up 17.6% – the second highest percentage in the nation.
The single-family housing market in New Orleans is seeing a significant increase in the price per square feet for new homes.In addition to an increase in sales, new home inventory also increased during the month of December by 2.6% to 237,000 available homes for sale. 

However, the combination of the sales rate and the available inventory shows a trend in supply and demand that is on the rise.  The monthly supply of new home inventory fell from 5.5 months to 5.2 months with the building and selling of these new homes.
The prices of homes being sold are also encouraging.  First-time home buyers have yet to take a strong hold in the market, but second and third-time home buyers are making purchases of new homes in the $200’s – $400’s, which means that they are able to “move up” from their existing homes into their next home.  This also indicates the sale of existing homes for sale, which shows a well-rounded, moving real estate market.

Another positive trend that has emerged is the sale of pre-sold homes.  These are homes that builders are advertising before they ever break ground on the new construction.  The rendering and floorplan, as well as the lot layout may be all the new home buyer has to go on to sign a contract to buy the home, but with the reduction in available inventory, the increase in unused building permits and new home starts, the only explanation is that builders are able to sell their homes before they start building them.  This trend was prevalent during the early 2000’s and shows that the housing market seems to finally be on its way to a full recovery.

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