More Homes Are Going on the Market

 July 2022 saw the third consecutive month of home sale growth. This is just a sign that the housing market is starting to slow down due to rising rates.

It is reported that the number of active listings is up 30.7% from July 2021. This was part of the Monthly Housing Trends report from Realtor.com. The average rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage rate rose 6% this summer but has dipped some this fall.

“The U.S. housing market continues to move oward more evenly balanced supply and demand compared to the 2021 frenzy,” said Danielle Hale, the chief economist at Realtor.com. “Our July data shows elevated mortgage rates left many buyers tightening their budgets and sellers responding with price reductions, while home shoppers who kept searching saw more available options.”

The Federal Reserve is moving at the fastest pace seen in thirty years to tighted policy. The reason is to cool consumer demand and bring the housing market back under control. The policymakers are approving two back-to-back 75 basis point rates hikes. There will be another big increase depending on the upcoming economic data.

If you are looking to buy a home, choose a local Realtor who can help you with the rise in borrowing costs and home prices. Redfin has reported that the share of sale agreements on existing homes canceled was around 15% of the homes that went under contract. This has been the highest since we have seen pre-pandemic.

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The Existing Home Market Is Down Still From the Pandemic

Reports show that the market for potential existing home sales were down still from the pandemic. June 2022 showed an estimate of 5.47 million at a seasonably adjusted annualized rate of 13.1% which was lower than just one year ago and 2.5% lower than just last month. The housing market is still strong, however still down compated to before the pandemic.

The factors that drive the existing home sales market have changed. The housing market is still trying to adjust to a post-pandemic norm coupled with higher mortgage rates and high home prices. The current rise in home prices is not the norm. June 2022 saw sales decreased by 823,000 compared to June of 2021. There are many fundmentals that are causing the slow down. Declining House-Buying Power is one which is basically how much home a buyer can afford. Factors that are looked at include household income and the current 30-year fixed mortgage rate. Another is tighter credit standards which means when lending standards are tight, then it is harder for a potential buyer to become qualified. When it is harder for a buyer to get a loan, then homes are not going to sell. The last catalyst is increasing tenure. This year it is reported that tenure length has increase from 10.4 years to 10.6 years. This has been driven by low mortgage rates and potential sellers staying put.

On the otherhand there are several fundamentals that are boosting the housing market potential. The biggest we have seen is rising house prices. When home prices rise, the home owner’s equity becomes stronger. Another factor is rising household formation which means the more households formed, the higher the demand for home inventory. Lastly, there is more new home supply. Seller will not want to sell if there is nothing for them to buy.

The housing market potential for existing-home sales is down compared to last year because of the factors mentioned above but it is still a good time to purchase a home. If you are in the market for a home, find a local sales agent who can help you navigate the current housing market.

In order to find out the potential home sales, existing-home sales are measured which include single-family, townhomes, condos and co-ops. These are taken on a seasonally adjusted annualized rate that is factored by looking at the historical relationship between existing home sales and the country’s population, demographics, homeowner tenure, and pricing trends. This is all done through The Potential Home Sales model which is published by the National Association of Realtors.

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Housing Market Is Making A Turn for The Best for Buyers

 According to Realtor.com, inventory rose to 31% in July making it a peak in three straight months.  This means there are tons more homes for buyers to pick from.

“The U.S. housing market continues to move toward more evenly balanced supply and demand compared to the 2021 frenzy,” Danielle Hale, Realtor.com’s chief economist said.

She goes on to explain that the rise in mortgage rates caused buyers to tighten their spending budget.  It has caused sellers to reduce their listing price.  Although there are more options, the rise in inventory is because most home buyers cannot afford what is out there.  As of August 4^th, the 30-year fixed rate averaged 4.99%.  Freddie Mac said this was down from the prior week but still up .77% from the same week a year ago.

Realtor.com also reported a decline in new listings in July showing a shift in many sellers’ plans to list.  Sellers are still in a good position as homes that are priced right are selling very quickly. The recent spike in home prices has also cushioned my homeowner’s equity so they can be a bit more flexible with their listing price.  According to the New York Federal Reserve Bank, the median expected increase in home prices dropped to 3.5% from 4.4% in June and 6% in January.

Bad news Fannie Mae’s Home Purchasing Sentiment Index dropped 2 point to 62.8 which is the lowest level since 2011.  The survey point out that only 1 of every 6 consumers (17%) surveyed said that it’s a good time to buy a home and for sellers, 67% believe it is a good time to sell.

“The Sentiment Index has declined steadily for much of the year, as higher mortgage rates continue to take a toll on housing affordability,” Doug Duncan, Fannie Mae’s chief economist, said in a statement.

To be sure, “with home-price growth slowing, and projected to slow further, we believe consumer reaction to current housing conditions is likely to be increasingly mixed,” Duncan said.

“Some homeowners may opt to list their homes sooner to take advantage of perceived high prices, while some potential homebuyers may choose to postpone their purchase decision, believing that home prices may drop.”

 

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A Change in the St. Tammany Schools’ Budget

 What will the new budget for St. Tammany public schools be for 2022-2023 school year?

The new proposed budget for the 2022-2023 school year is $488 million.

The St. Tammany public school has announced a new budget for 2022-2023 which amounts to $488 million. The larger budget is in part of the recent salary hikes, 40 new school buses and expanded mental health services for students and staff and increase funding for school security.

The salary hikes are $20.8 million on staff salaries and benefits. The parish teachers union and the school system finally agreed to the pay boost. The money will come from the district’s general operating fund. Supplementing the general fund is the district’s special revenue budget, which includes federal aid schools received to make up for losses sustained during the coronavirus pandemic.   The district has until September 2023 to spend the $114 million in federal allotment and so far have already spent $37 million.

Along with putting funds toward professional development for health providers, they will also be putting it towards starting a new positive behavior intiative. The program is called “Leader in Me.” This is a social-emotional learning initiative that seeks to help students manage their emotions and maintain relationships.

As for ramping up security, the district will spend 4% over last year which will total a school security fund of $8.9 million. This will cover salaries and benefits for security employees which include secuirty officers, law enforcment officers who work at schools and mental health profiders.

The 40 new school buses will be delivered in Decemeber of this year. With the new buses, the number of district-owned buses will double. Revenue from FEMA-administered community disaster fund grants will cover the costs. In the past, independent bus owners and operators have been used. The school district will be able to cut back on hiring indpendent buses and drivers.

“Last year we had over 300 drivers. This year, the number of bus owners/operators is between 240-250,” said Wichers.

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Factors Affecting The Current Bank Lending

 Like everything else, the commercial real estate business has seen changes due to the pandemic in the past two years. Add another catalyst to the mix, global inflation and we have a whole new ball game. This fall we have seen a change from the previous fall in interest rates.

Commercial real estate investors and lenders are viewing underwriting in a different perspective than times past. This is due to how investors are working with debt. Currently, the cost of debt is higher making the old on commercial real estate weaker than it was six to twelve months ago.

The Commercial real estate industry is hesitant because this certain rate environment has not shown up in a long time. The competitiveness of the market has also slowed down because a lot of the pent up demand that was seen after the worst of the pandemic is now gone.

Buyers and sellers are working at a slower pace than just six months ago. Transactions are being thought through more with the change in interest rates and capital markets. In fact, many commercial real estate lenders are stepping away altogether.

Inflation has also slowed things down. Labor cost and material cost have seen an extreme rise in costs . This has a big impact because when both lenders and investors look at future cash flow, these higher costs can dampen the profit margin. The Southeast market has actually seen double-digit rent growth already from this time last year.

When it comes to international affairs, interest rate hikes and the potential of a recession the capital markets are uncertain causing an upset in capital markets. This has become a challenge for lenders and their ability to lend.

There has also been a change in the demand for many lending products. Investors are looking for more long-term and fixed-rate lending products. The drastic shift can be blamed on the fast-rising interest rates.

As for the state of the current commercial real estate lending market, lenders still have maintained underwriting standards and the leverage has not gone completely unhinged. Structures are still sturdy and there is still a lot of equity capital in deals today. Last year saw a record year due to the floodgates opening after the pandemic restrictions. We are in a more measured environment but that does not mean it is not an active market.

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Reasons For The Continuing Price Appreciation

 The current shift in the market will cause a slow down in price growth but professionals in the industry report that price appreciation will keep going. Good news for sellers as the home prices will not drop.  There are two reasons why this is the case: supply and demand. 

Housing inventory is increasing in 2022 but it is a slow increase and housing demand is still low.  The reason we do not have enough homes on the market today stems from the 2008 crash.  After the crash, many builders and businesses in the industry closed shop.  Now that the housing market is hot with buyer’s demand, there are not enough houses being built.  After the crash in the housing market there has been a long period of underbuilding.   Since this has been going on for fourteen years, it will take awhile to build back from the underbuilding of new homes.

Even though we are seeing higher home prices and an increase in mortgage rates, this does not mean that buyer demand is cooling off.  In fact experts predict that Millennials will keep the buying momentum going.  The reason we are seeing the Millennials flooding the market is due to their agining into their peak homebuying years.  The Millennial demand coupled with low housing supply is causing the pressure to rise on home prices.

” Millennials continue to transition to their prime home-buying age and will remain the driving force in potential homeownership demand in the years ahead”, says Odeta Kushi, Deputy Chief Economist at First American.

” After all, supplies of homes for sale remain near record lows. And while a jump in mortgage rates has dampened demand somewhat, demand still outpaces supply, thanks to a combination of little new construction and strong household formation by large numbers of millennials “, says Bankrate.

Home prices are not going to fall due to these changes. Since there is still an unbalance between demand and supply.  Like with all products in any market, supply and demand  will predict the market.  A local sales agent can help you navigate the home buying process even when the market is shifting.

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