An Uptick in Builder Confidence

A surge in builder confidence marked a positive turn following a four-month decline, propelled by a drop in mortgage rates and promising economic indicators for the housing sector as we approach 2024.

According to the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) released today, builder confidence in the market for newly constructed single-family homes climbed three points to 37 in December.

The recent decrease in mortgage rates by approximately 50 basis points over the past month has rejuvenated builder optimism. Prospective buyers who had previously felt excluded due to pricing are now reevaluating their options, leading to increased traffic, notes NAHB Chairman Alicia Huey, a custom home builder and developer from Birmingham, Ala. Addressing the pressing housing shortage, Huey emphasizes that boosting new home production is a pivotal step to alleviate the affordability crisis, expand housing inventory, and counter inflation.

NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz adds that the housing market seems to have navigated the peak mortgage rates for this cycle. This positive development is expected to stimulate home buyer demand in the upcoming months, with the HMI component measuring future sales expectations rising by six points in December.

Dietz acknowledges the recent dip in builder confidence, which contrasts with gains in the pace of single-family permits and starts during the same period. He attributes this temporary discrepancy to dramatic increases in short-term interest rates, impacting land development and builder loans used by private builders. Dietz suggests that as rates moderate, this temporary gap between sentiment and construction activity is likely to diminish.

Despite the positive trend, many builders are still contending with mortgage rates above 7% through November, prompting them to adjust home prices to bolster sales. In December, 36% of builders reported reducing home prices, matching the previous month's peak for 2023. The average price reduction remained at 6%, unchanged from November. Additionally, 60% of builders offered sales incentives in December, a figure consistent with November but slightly down from 62% in October.

Derived from a monthly survey conducted by NAHB for over 35 years, the NAHB/Wells Fargo HMI assesses builder perceptions of current single-family home sales and sales expectations for the next six months. Scores for each component are used to calculate a seasonally adjusted index, where any number above 50 indicates that more builders view conditions as good than poor.

In December, the HMI index reflecting traffic of prospective buyers rose by three points to 24, the component measuring sales expectations in the next six months increased by six points to 45, and the component charting current sales conditions held steady at 40.

Examining three-month moving averages for regional HMI scores, the Northeast increased by two points to 51, the Midwest declined by one point to 34, the South dropped by three points to 39, and the West posted a four-point decline to 31.

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