A Shift in Single-Family Market Share

 Overall we have seen across the county that single-family housing starts have slowed this year. In fact, the largest drop (percentage basis) has been seen in the larger populated areas. The hugest decrease was seen in the large metro-outlying counties which went from 23.6% in 2021 to -12.1% in 2022. Multi-family growth has been on the rise everywhere except highly densely populated areas according to the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) Home Building Geography Index (HBGI).

We have seen changes since the pandemic in single-family marketing. A lot of people have been moving out of densely populated urban areas due to the pandemic. From the fourth quarter of 2019 to the fourth quarter of 2022, we saw a huge increase in Micro Counties from 6.0% to 7.4%. The biggest loss was in large metro-core counties which went from 18.4% to 16.0%.

Multi-family has remained in the positive and is above historical levels. In fact, six of the seven submarkets had growth above 15.0% during the last quarter of 2022. The smallest growth rate was seen in large metro-outlying counties which went to 35.7%. The trend is the same as single-family construction where even though it is still positive, there has been a drop since the fourth quarter of 2019. In fact, Large Metro-Core Counties went from 41.7% in 2019 to 36.7% in 2022.

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Home Buyers Will Need Patience When Purchasing a Home in 2021

The current housing market is booming which is good news but is it for buyers? Homebuyers are facing many obstacles in this seller's market. In fact, it is one of the most competitive markets we have seen for homebuyers recently. According to the National Association of Realtors (NAR), homes that are for sale are getting around 4.8 offers per sale! This is due to the lack of inventory in the current housing market.

“The housing market is still relatively under-supplied, and buyers can’t buy what’s not for sale. Relative to what we saw in 2017 to 2019, March 2021 was still roughly 117,000 new listings lower, adding to the pre-existing early-year gap of more than 200,000 fresh listings that would typically have come to market in January or February. Despite this week’s gain from a year ago, we’re 19 percent below the new seller activity that we saw in the same week in 2019,” says Danielle Hale, Chief Economist at realtor.com.

Many are blaming the pandemic for lack of inventory because sellers are scared to have potential buyers in their homes but this is not the case. The main cause is the shortage of new construction of single-family homes. A chart which shows the completed single-family homes per decade shows a dramatic decrease from 2000-2009 to 2010-2019. From 2000 - 2009 12.6 million single-family homes were constructed and from 2010 - 2019 only 6.5 million single-family homes were constructed.

“Even before the COVID-19 pandemic and current recession, the housing market was facing a substantial supply shortage and that deficit has grown. In 2018, we estimated that there was a housing supply shortage of approximately 2.5 million units, meaning that the U.S. economy was about 2.5 million units below what was needed to match long-term demand. Using the same methodology, we estimate that the housing shortage increased to 3.8 million units by the end of 2020. A continued increase in a housing shortage is extremely unusual; typically in a recession, housing demand declines and supply rises, causing inventory to rise above the long-term trend,” says am Khater, Vice President and Chief Economist at Freddie Mac, Economic Housing and Research Division.

Freddie Mac estimates that close to four million homes will need to be built to meet the current demand. NAR reports that as of March 2021, there were 1.74 million housing starts which is the highest they have been in 14 years. This is an increase in both single-family and multifamily units. It will take around 4-8 months from start to completion on new construction so patience is needed.

If you are considering purchasing a home this year, you will definitely need some patience. A good idea is to contact your local real estate professional to help you navigate this demanding housing market.

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Stucco and Vinyl Make the Top List for Exteriors on New Construction Homes

The Census Bureau released their Survey of Construction (SOC) and data shows that the most used exterior finished in 2020 for a new single-family home was stucco. The report revealed that 28% of new homes started in 2020 the principal exterior material was stucco, 26% used vinyl, 21% used Hardiplank or Hardiboard, 19% brick of veer brick, wood products 4% and rock or stone materials only 1%.

The Survey of Construction (SOC) is a great resource distributed by the United States Census Bureau. The purpose of the survey is to gather the data on the current statistics for both national and regional starts, completions and characteristics of new construction on single-family and multifamily housing units. The report also includes sales of new single-family houses.

Along the different regions in the county, there were big differences in what was mainly used on the exteriors of homes in certain regions. Vinyl siding was used most in 5 out of the 9 census divisions. The report shows that in Middle Atlantic and New England vinyl was used as the primary exterior on 76% of new homes started in 2020, in the East 68%, West North Central 53%, and in East South Central 45%. Stucco won out in the Pacific division with 63%, Mountain came in with 50% and South Atlantic used the material on 39% of new single-family homes started in 2020. Brick or brick veneer was used the most in South Central with 64% and the East with 39%.

If you are in the market for a home, now is a great time to buy. The historically low-interest rates are in the buyer's favor. Remember if you are considering purchasing a home, use a licensed sales agent who can help you through the process.

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