2023 Housing Market Predictions

 There is light at the end of the tunnel hopefully for potential homebuyers. According to professionals in the industry, the trends are shooting toward more affordability.

“Americans finding ways to make payments on a roof over their heads will drive the market next year,” says Zillow chief economist Skylar Olsen. “Affordability is going to be the biggest factor in housing for 2023, but there’s room for optimism on that front if mortgage rates recede.”

Those in the industry have five housing market predictions for 2023.

1. Housing affordability will improve slightly

Those in the industry say there are signs of both the home inventory and monthly mortgage cost will stabilize. Home values should not go down, but they will not keep skyrocketing to space. In fact, national home prices are predicted to remain flat, and they may even fall in some areas.

Inflation is showing some signs of easing up and mortgage rates are starting to also dip. The mortgage rates will continue to go up and down which can cause stress to the housing market.

2. The Midwest will grow in demand

The Midwest has not seen the home price increases like many of the other regions in the US. Professionals believe that this will attract homebuyers to the Midwest. Places like Iowa, Missouri, Illinois, Kansas, and Ohio have more affordable homes.

The mortgage-to-income ratios in many Midwest cities such as St. Louis, Missouri, and Toledo, Ohio, make them the perfect place for first-time homebuyers. There are also more sellers willing to list right now in these areas which mean there is more inventory than in most regions.

3. More friends and family will buy homes together

According to Zillow, 18% of homebuyers have purchased with a friend or a relative who was not a spouse. Buying with someone else helps with your debt-to-income ratio and helps with a larger down payment. The seller’s market has pushed buyers into thinking creatively.

4. New construction buyers may have more choice — and even bargains

Builders’ sentiment is rising and it is leading to more homes being built. A rise in new construction can mean better discounts for potential home buyers. It is reported that new homes under construction are up 50% since February 2020.

5. More homeowners may leverage their home as a source of income

Rental prices are rising higher right now than home values. This means that your home could net you income by renting it. Your rental income will more than likely be higher than your mortgage payment.

In a 2021 survey of home buyers, one-third said they were purchasing just to rent out the home. The record low mortgage rates in 2020 and 2021 made it easier to purchase second homes as income producers. If you are worried about finding a renter for a home, Zillow Rental Manager is your solution. Zillow Rental Manager allows you to screen tenants and collect rent payments. You can post your rental online and on the app for free.

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How Much of Your Net Worth Should Be in Real Estate?

 Ever since the first settlers came to America, real estate has been a worthy investment. Even with the volatile economy we currently are living in, real estate is still a pretty safe way to invest and grow your net worth. The home prices are high currently, but those that have recently invested in a new home will still see a good return. There are some homeowners who have too little or too much of their net worth invested in real estate which can result in problems. So what is the magic number when it comes to investing your net worth into real estate?

According to professionals in the industry, you should use anywhere from 25% to 40% of your net worth for real estate. This will include your home that you live in and other real estate investments. By doing this, it allows you to capitalize on the advantages of real estate ownership while giving you plenty of flexibility to pursue other avenues of investment and wealth development. This is a broad percentage range but your age, risk tolerance and other various factors will play a part in determining how much you should go with.

Investors will tell you that adding real estate to a portfolio is very beneficial. You can enjoy predictable cash flow, excellent returns, tax advantages and diversification. Remember there are several pros to real estate investments. Real estate can appreciate over time, bring you tax incentives, provide a large chunk of income, allows you to use leverage and build equity, and allows the investor to have direct control over the investment.

Investors will need to know first hand how to calculate how much real estate should go into their net worth. This can be calculated with a net worth formula which is net worth = total assets – total liabilities. There are net worth calculators online that will provide you with the figure. An investor should always know the information needed to calculate.

To make it easier, an investor will need to divide their assets into four categories. These include tangible assets (furniture, cars, collectables, physical properties, etc.), equity assets (ownership in stocks, investments in partnerships and businesses, retirement accounts, life insurance cash value, etc.), cash and cash equivalents (cash, money market accounts, checking accounts, savings, etc.) and fixed income (bonds, etc.).

Once you have this total, then you will need to add up your liabilities. This can be divided into two categories which are secured debts (car loans, home equity loans, mortgages, etc.) and unsecured debts (credit card debt, student loans, personal loans, taxes, medical bills, etc.). Once you have your total for your assets and liabilities you will apply the net worth formula.

Remember, it is very important to understand how your net worth is calculated and what information you will need to do this. If you are in the market for a home or a real estate investment, talk to a local realtor who can help you with a real estate transaction.

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Today’s Home Prices in the Current Market

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 There has been a lot of activity in the housing market when it comes to home prices. It seems that there is a trend of home price appreciation but with this same bit of news comes the fact the sellers are still reducing the price of their homes. So what is really happening with today’s home prices?

Industry leaders explain the differences between the terms used by the industry. Appreciation means when the home price increases, depreciation reflects a decrease in the home price and deceleration is when home prices continue to appreciate but at a slower and moderate pace. Today’s housing market industry leaders are seeing a deceleration. The home prices are still appreciating but not at a record-breaking pace as they have been in the past two years.

According to CoreLogic, in 2021 home prices appreciated by an average of 15% nationwide and at the beginning of 2022 appreciation was at 20%. Currently, it is predicted that prices will increase on average10% to 11%. On a year-over-year basis, home prices appreciated between 19% -20% from January to March of this year. The last few months, home prices have decelerated to 18%. They are still climbing but at a slower pace than compared to the same time last year.

“Annual home price growth dropped by nearly two percentage points….- the greatest single-moth slowdown on record since at least the early 1970s… While June’s slowdown was record-breaking, home price growth would need to decelerate at this pace for six more months to drive annual appreciation back to 5%, a rate more in line with long-run averages,” says Black Knight’s Monthly Mortgage Monitor.

So today’s home prices are not falling or depreciating, but decelerating or moderating nationwide. There are some pocket markets that are seeing declines because they are overheated. When looking at the country as a whole, prices will not depreciate or fall but will keep appreciating.

When you are in the market for a home and want to know about what the current market is doing, the best way to go about this is to hire a trusted real estate profession. A real estate professional can help you navigate the current market making sure you make the best decisions when it comes to your home.

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Tips on How To Choose the Best Mortgage Lender

 The current housing market is super hot and has reached record highs and looks to continue this way for the near future. The U.S. housing market is the highest we have seen in 15 years making 2021 the strongest year. This means tons of competition for buyers. This means finding the right lender is a must. The right lender can save both time and money for you as a buyer. Here are some important tips to follow when choosing a mortgage lender.

Look for a straightforward Pre-Approval Process

A pre-approval is very important when it comes to purchasing a home in this market. In fact, this should be one of the first steps in the mortgage lending process. A mortgage lender can help with understanding the requirements and give you a clear picture of how much you can afford.

Most pre-approval processes take into account your income, your debt-to-income ratio (DTI), your FICO score, and your employment history. The right lender can help you get your answers efficiently. They can get you a pre-approval to show sellers when you make an offer.

Think Beyond Mortgage Rates

Mortgage rates are very important but it is not the only factor to look at when you are choosing a lender. Lenders can offer different fees and commissions so shop around and see what different lenders have to offer. You will want to find a lender who is great with communication. This will simplify the process for you and help the process home faster.

Consider the Full Range of Offerings

Almost every lender can offer excellent rates, however not every lender provides a vast array of services. You want to choose a lender that can support you through every stage of the process. A dedicated lender with an online application process makes for great repeat customers. Lenders take pride in their honest rate quotes, instant loan estimates, and lack of loan officer commission. This means that you will get upfront pricing and a clearer sense of how much you can truly afford.

Remember the right mortgage lender can help you find your dream home for the right price and in a shorter amount of time. A good lender will not only help you with low costs and transparency but will put your best interest first.

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 A drop in growth pushed the housing share of the economy up at the beginning of 2022. The overall GDP dropped at a 1.4% annual rate. This was due to the increased inventories and a jump in imports. The housing's share of GDP rose to 16.7%.

The beginning of the year also saw a 4.8% increase in GDP in terms of residential fixed investment. There will be challenges this year for home construction. There will be a higher interest rate due to tightening monetary policy. RFI added 10 basis points to the headline GDP growth rate at the start of 2022.

Housing activities add to the GDP in two ways. First through RFI which stands for residential fixed investment. This measures how home building, multifamily development, and remodeling contribute to GDP. It can do this through the construction of new single-family and multifamily structures, residential remodeling, production of manufactured homes, and brokers’ fees.

Second is the measure of house services and how it affects GDP. This includes gross rents (including utilities) paid by renters, owners’ imputed rent (an estimate of how much it would cost to rent owner-occupied units), and utility payments. In the first quarter of 2022 housing services made up 11.9% of the economy, totaling $2.9 trillion on a seasonally adjusted annual basis.

This year the recent interest in housing has definitely affected the economy in a positive way. The shares are near historic norms.

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What To Expect With the Mortgage Process

 

Purchasing a home is a big life decision and the mortgage process is a big part. Especially in today's hot housing market, a buyer needs to have all their ducks in a row. Here are several steps to take which will walk you through the mortgage process.

1. Get a free rate quote (or two)

With anything you buy, you always shop around for the best deal. This is the same for mortgages. You will want to obtain a free rate quote from at least a couple of different lenders. Before contacting a lender, have the answers to these questions. Are you buying a home or refinancing your current mortgage? What kind of home are you looking for? Will this be your primary residence? When are you looking to buy/refinance? Where do you want to live? The majority of lenders will want you to answer these questions when you are asking them for a free quote.

2. Choose a loan originator

Once you find the best quote, you will want to choose a loan originator. Once you have chosen a loan originator, they will be your point of contact when it comes to the mortgage application. The loan originator is the middle man and can make communication between all parties run smoothly.

3. Get preapproved

In the current seller's market, this is a must. Getting preapproved lets a seller and an agent know that you as a buyer are serious. In order to get preapproved, you will need to give your chosen lender your credit score, income, debts, and any other financial obligations. Once you are preapproved, the lender will give you a letter that will last 90 days.

4. House shop

Once you know the amount you are preapproved for, it is now time to shop for a home. Remember to choose the right Realtor who can help you narrow down your options.

5. Make an offer

When you and your Realtor have found your dream home, you need to make an offer. This is where your preapproval letter comes into play. A preapproval letter will give you a leg up on other buyers.

6. Lock your rate and get an appraisal

Once your offer has been accepted it is time to get into the loan options and rates. You will want to choose the right type of loan and rate that fits your budget. During this time you will also want to get an appraisal on the home. Usually, the appraisal is requested by the lender. The lender wants to make sure the loan amount is not over what the value of the home is appraised for.

7. Apply for financing

Now is the time to apply for your loan. Plan on a week to two weeks to finalize your loan application. You will need to gather all your documentation which includes your most recent pay stubs, employment records, bank statements, tax returns, government-issued ID, and social security number.

8. Underwriting

This is part of the mortgage process where a lender will assess the risk of approving your loan. This is the final decision stage for your loan application.

9. Final review

Once your loan is approved it is time to go over all of the paperwork. Your lend will review everything and make sure it is ready for closing. You will also get a closing statement which will show you how much money you need to bring to the closing.

10. Closing time

The final step is the closing. At the closing, you will sign documents and pay the closing costs. Once you have completed this, you are given the keys to your new home!

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Top Three 2022 Real Estate Investment Trends

 Today's housing market is booming and prices are continuing to rise. The National Associations of Realtors has reported that the median price of existing single-family homes has risen by double-digits in 78% of the tracked markets. Real estate investing is also increasing, and investors depend on key trends in the market. Here are the top three trends for 2022.

1. The Continuation of Historically Low-Interest Rates

Even with talk that the interest rates will rise next year, they still will be at historical record lows.  David Bianco, chief investment officer for the Americas at DWS Group, expects two quarter-point rate hikes next year. This should not be too much of a concern due to the 30-year Treasury bond is still holding at less than 2% and the 30-year fixed mortgage rates are a little above 3%. These lows will keep the housing market booming.

2. The Emergence of Alternate Property Sectors

With the expansions due to the hot market, investors are keeping an eye out for these opportunities. Investors are watching for single-family build-to-rent residential opportunities. Many homebuyers are still shying away from the cities after the pandemic scare. Due to this shift, build-to-rent properties are becoming popular. According to industry research, single-family homes built between 2019 and 2020 for rent increased 30%. "Last-mile industrial real estate has also become a big interest. Online shopping has grown especially during stay-at-home orders making warehouses a lucrative investment. Another popular opportunity currently is multi-asset real estate in the South East. Multi-family communities have steadily gained popularity.

3. The Sunbelt is Positioned for Further Appreciation

The Sunbelt includes cities that are located in the southern third of the country. The area is seeing a very strong demand for real estate. This strong demand is due to population growth, business-friendly local governments, and milder climates. Census data reports that the Sunbelt is home to 10 of the 15 fastest-growing cities in the U.S. States such as Tennessee, North Carolina, Texas, and Georgia are business-friendly which attracts higher real estate prices. A warmer climate allows for fewer maintenance expenses as well.

If you are a home buyer or an investor looking for real estate, don't do it alone. Contact a Realtor who can help you purchase a home or an investment property.

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Five Financial Obligations Every Homeowner Should Know

Buying a home can be both stressful and exciting. Homeownership is an important life event, especially for first-time homebuyers. Understanding these five financial obligations can help your journey be less stressful.

1. Don’t be fooled by your mortgage pre-approval amount

Getting a pre-approval is the first step on the journey of owning a home. A pre-approval letter from a mortgage lender does not mean you have it in the bank so to speak. A mortgage pre-approval is only just assurance from a lender that the buyer is in good financial standing to take on a mortgage of a certain size.  Just because you are pre-approved for a certain amount, doesn't mean you can afford it. Your pre-approval does not equal your actual budget. For example, even though you are approved for $300,000 doesn't mean you can pay the payments for a $300,000 mortgage.

2. Closing costs can add up—and be complicated

Closing costs are out-of-pocket expenses which include title insurance, notary fees, and the cost of the deed. Buyers can ask for sellers to pay closing costs but it is not to their advantage in the current seller's market.

“Some loan programs only allow a certain percentage of the sale price to be given to the buyer as a credit,” says Joe DiRosa, a real estate agent with RealtyTopia in Pennsylvania.

That means that if you’re offering $200,000 for a house and your lender only allows you to accept 2% in closing costs, you shouldn’t ask for $5,000—that would be $1,000 down the drain since you can only accept up to $4,000 in credit. Before you make an offer, ask your lender if your loan institutes a limit on closing cost credits.

3. PMI isn’t actually the devil

PMI stands for private mortgage insurance and has been characterized as both a blessing and a curse. PMI is a safety net for mortgage lenders when homebuyers do not put 20% down. It covers the lenders if the homebuyers default on their mortgage. The PMI is an additional payment on your mortgage payment. Unlike your principal, PMI does not add to your equity. Once a homeowner does have 20% equity, you can ask to have the PMI removed.

4. You might have to make escrow payments

Escrow simply refers to the separate account where that money is held; basically, our lender sets aside the money for taxes and insurance, which acts as a safety net to ensure that we sock away enough money for those expenses.  So when you have a loan with PMI, you have to pay money into an escrow for property taxes and home insurance.

5. You need to budget for surprises (and your own mistakes)

There will definitely be unexpected expenses in homeownership. Even if you depend on your clean report from the home inspector, something could come up the next day. A home inspector gives the dishwasher an A+ but the next week after you move in and go to wash the dishes it won't start.

Homeownership is a great investment, but you have to plan ahead. A local Realtor can help you navigate and find your perfect dream home.

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Experts Predict Record Increase in 2022 for Conforming Loans

 The housing market has had some price increases in homes in the past year. The spike has not only hit the home buyer's pockets but has pushed the limits of conforming loans to what experts anticipate may be record increases in 2022.

The Wall Street Journal reported that the maximum loan limit will be close to $1 million for high-cost areas for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Those loans that are over the loan limits will be considered non-conforming or jumbo loans and will also be charged higher interest rates.

Many home buyers are excited about the increase. Those in high-cost areas will now not be considered jumbo loans. "There are so many benefits to having a conforming loan, increasing the loan limits will be huge," said Melissa Cohn, Regional Vice President at William Raveis Mortgage.

Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae are not lenders but they buy loans back from lenders and turn around and sell them to investors. In turn, loans are cheaper for lenders and they can offer better rates to their consumers.

Now with the higher limit for conforming loans, more homebuyers will qualify. The consumer will spend less on their down payments and can have a lower credit score to be approved.

This change comes as the home prices have increased around 7.42% between the third quarter of 2019 and 2020. Due to the rise, the baseline maximum conforming loan limit will increase.

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Another Drop in Mortgage Rates

 

Mortgage interest rates have been rising from the record low rates that were seen at the beginning of 2021.  Good news for those that missed out, rates are showing a dip back towards record lows. Freddie Mac reported the 30 year fixed rates have dropped to 2.88% and the 15 year fixed rates have dropped to 2.22%. These are the lowest levels seen since the middle of February 2021.

"Since their peak at 3.18% in April, mortgage rates have declined by thirty basis points," said Sam Khater, Freddie Mac's chief economist. "While this decline is not large, it provides modest relief to borrowers who are purchasing in a market with strong home appreciation and scant inventory."

The rising house prices coupled with rising rates pushed some buyers back from purchasing. Now that the rates are dropping these buyers hopefully will start actively looking again.  George Ratiu of Realtor.com believes the rates will offset the higher home prices.

"For buyers seeking predictable monthly payments, the continuation of low rates will enable them to keep searching for a desirable home with the peace of mind that their housing costs will remain steady for years to come with a low fixed-rate mortgage," he said.

Another positive outcome in the home market is the home inventory is up 5%.  Sellers are encouraged by the rising home prices and are now putting their homes on the market.

"The influx of fresh listings is helping moderate record-breaking price growth, presenting more opportunities for buyers. However, affordability will remain a challenge for many first-time buyers, as the monthly payment for the typical home is still $116 higher this week than it was a year ago."

Refinancing dropped in June 2021 due to the rising rates.  June 2021 saw refinancing 30% lower than in March of 2021 and 60% down from January 2021.  Now since the rates are dipping again, now is a good time for homeowners to revisit refinancing.

If you are in the market for a new home, contact a Realtor who can help with the process from start to finish.  This is a great time for potential homebuyers to take advantage of the low mortgage rates.

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